Blackjack Dealer Outcome Probabilities
When playing Blackjack following a strategy be it Basic Strategy, or a more advanced strategy is the best tool available to maximize your return. However these strategies rarely explain the odds of the dealers hand busting, making 20 or even 21 when hitting. Well the following charts will make it easy for you to see how often a Blackjack dealer will bust their hand given their up card.
How to use the Charts
The charts are laid out with the dealer's upcard across the top, down the left side of the chart is the outcome that the dealer could achieve. To find out what the odds are for a dealer making 19. Find the type of game your playing, for example double deck, dealer stand on all 17s, go across to the number that matches the dealer's upcard (let us assume it is a 6), then move down that column and you will get the different odds for the different outcomes. This chart tells us that in a Double Deck game with the dealer standing on all 17s they would have no chance at a BlackJack, a 42.21% chance of busting and only a 9.75% chance of drawing to 21.
Know this data can certainly enhance your play at the blackjack table when you know how often a dealer's hand will reach a certain value. Each value given below are percentages.
Single Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.84 |
31.37 |
| Bust | 35.30 |
37.56 |
40.28 |
42.89 |
42.08 |
25.99 |
23.86 |
23.34 |
23.25 |
16.98 |
| 17 | 13.90 |
13.03 |
13.10 |
11.97 |
16.69 |
37.23 |
13.09 |
12.19 |
12.42 |
18.38 |
| 18 | 13.18 |
13.09 |
11.42 |
12.35 |
10.65 |
13.86 |
36.30 |
10.39 |
12.25 |
19.09 |
| 19 | 13.18 |
12.38 |
12.07 |
11.69 |
10.72 |
7.73 |
12.94 |
35.74 |
12.44 |
18.87 |
| 20 | 12.39 |
12.33 |
11.63 |
10.47 |
10.07 |
7.89 |
6.83 |
12.23 |
35.69 |
19.17 |
| 21 | 12.05 |
11.60 |
11.51 |
10.63 |
9.79 |
7.30 |
6.98 |
6.11 |
3.96 |
7.51 |
Single Deck: Dealer hits soft 17
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.84 |
31.37 |
| Bust | 35.63 |
37.81 |
40.58 |
43.00 |
43.78 |
25.99 |
23.86 |
23.34 |
23.25 |
20.46 |
| 17 | 12.98 |
12.35 |
12.28 |
11.67 |
11.61 |
37.23 |
13.09 |
12.19 |
12.42 |
8.18 |
| 18 | 13.31 |
13.19 |
11.54 |
12.38 |
11.38 |
13.86 |
36.30 |
10.39 |
12.25 |
20.54 |
| 19 | 13.32 |
12.50 |
12.19 |
11.74 |
11.61 |
7.73 |
12.94 |
35.74 |
12.44 |
20.62 |
| 20 | 12.56 |
12.42 |
11.78 |
10.52 |
10.96 |
7.89 |
6.83 |
12.23 |
35.69 |
20.95 |
| 21 | 12.20 |
11.73 |
11.63 |
10.69 |
10.67 |
7.30 |
6.98 |
6.11 |
3.96 |
9.26 |
Double Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.77 |
31.07 |
| Bust | 35.33 |
37.48 |
39.85 |
42.25 |
42.21 |
26.11 |
24.16 |
23.09 |
23.11 |
16.81 |
| 17 | 13.94 |
13.28 |
13.07 |
12.10 |
16.62 |
37.05 |
12.97 |
12.09 |
12.24 |
18.64 |
| 18 | 13.33 |
13.07 |
12.02 |
12.28 |
10.62 |
13.82 |
36.12 |
11.20 |
12.16 |
18.99 |
| 19 | 13.07 |
12.46 |
12.10 |
11.73 |
10.67 |
7.80 |
12.90 |
35.41 |
12.25 |
18.89 |
| 20 | 12.40 |
12.18 |
11.64 |
10.90 |
10.12 |
7.88 |
6.89 |
12.11 |
36.39 |
19.03 |
| 21 | 11.93 |
11.54 |
11.31 |
10.73 |
9.75 |
7.34 |
6.96 |
6.10 |
3.84 |
7.65 |
Double Deck: Dealer hits soft 17
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.77 |
31.07 |
| Bust | 35.65 |
37.75 |
40.13 |
42.37 |
43.88 |
26.11 |
24.16 |
23.09 |
23.11 |
20.26 |
| 17 | 12.99 |
12.50 |
12.26 |
11.75 |
11.55 |
37.05 |
12.97 |
12.09 |
12.24 |
8.24 |
| 18 | 13.48 |
13.19 |
12.15 |
12.33 |
11.42 |
13.82 |
36.12 |
11.20 |
12.16 |
20.61 |
| 19 | 13.22 |
12.59 |
12.23 |
11.79 |
11.55 |
7.80 |
12.90 |
35.41 |
12.25 |
20.65 |
| 20 | 12.56 |
12.30 |
11.78 |
10.96 |
11.00 |
7.88 |
6.89 |
12.11 |
36.39 |
20.81 |
| 21 | 12.08 |
11.68 |
11.45 |
10.79 |
10.62 |
7.34 |
6.96 |
6.10 |
3.84 |
9.43 |
4 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.73 |
30.92 |
| Bust | 35.34 |
37.43 |
39.65 |
41.94 |
42.27 |
26.17 |
24.32 |
22.97 |
23.05 |
16.73 |
| 17 | 13.96 |
13.39 |
13.06 |
12.16 |
16.58 |
36.95 |
12.91 |
12.05 |
12.16 |
18.76 |
| 18 | 13.41 |
13.06 |
12.31 |
12.25 |
10.62 |
13.80 |
36.03 |
11.60 |
12.12 |
18.94 |
| 19 | 13.02 |
12.51 |
12.12 |
11.75 |
10.65 |
7.83 |
12.88 |
35.24 |
12.16 |
18.89 |
| 20 | 12.40 |
12.11 |
11.64 |
11.11 |
10.15 |
7.87 |
6.91 |
12.06 |
36.73 |
18.96 |
| 21 | 11.86 |
11.50 |
11.22 |
10.78 |
9.73 |
7.37 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.79 |
7.72 |
4 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.73 |
30.92 |
| Bust | 35.66 |
37.71 |
39.92 |
42.06 |
43.91 |
26.17 |
24.32 |
22.97 |
23.05 |
20.16 |
| 17 | 13.00 |
12.57 |
12.25 |
11.80 |
11.52 |
36.95 |
12.91 |
12.05 |
12.16 |
8.27 |
| 18 | 13.57 |
13.19 |
12.44 |
12.31 |
11.45 |
13.80 |
36.03 |
11.60 |
12.12 |
20.65 |
| 19 | 13.18 |
12.65 |
12.26 |
11.81 |
11.51 |
7.83 |
12.88 |
35.24 |
12.16 |
20.67 |
| 20 | 12.57 |
12.24 |
11.78 |
11.17 |
11.01 |
7.87 |
6.91 |
12.06 |
36.73 |
20.75 |
| 21 | 12.02 |
11.65 |
11.35 |
10.84 |
10.60 |
7.37 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.79 |
9.50 |
6 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.72 |
30.87 |
| Bust | 35.35 |
37.42 |
39.58 |
41.84 |
42.28 |
26.19 |
24.37 |
22.92 |
23.02 |
16.70 |
| 17 | 13.97 |
13.43 |
13.06 |
12.18 |
16.57 |
36.92 |
12.89 |
12.03 |
12.13 |
18.81 |
| 18 | 13.44 |
13.05 |
12.41 |
12.24 |
10.62 |
13.79 |
36.00 |
11.73 |
12.10 |
18.92 |
| 19 | 13.00 |
12.52 |
12.13 |
11.76 |
10.64 |
7.84 |
12.87 |
35.19 |
12.13 |
18.89 |
| 20 | 12.40 |
12.08 |
11.64 |
11.18 |
10.16 |
7.87 |
6.92 |
12.04 |
36.84 |
18.94 |
| 21 | 11.84 |
11.49 |
11.19 |
10.79 |
9.73 |
7.38 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.77 |
7.74 |
6 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.72 |
30.87 |
| Bust | 35.67 |
37.70 |
39.85 |
41.96 |
43.93 |
26.19 |
24.37 |
22.92 |
23.02 |
20.13 |
| 17 | 13.01 |
12.59 |
12.25 |
11.81 |
11.51 |
36.92 |
12.89 |
12.03 |
12.13 |
8.28 |
| 18 | 13.60 |
13.19 |
12.54 |
12.30 |
11.46 |
13.79 |
36.00 |
11.73 |
12.10 |
20.66 |
| 19 | 13.16 |
12.67 |
12.26 |
11.82 |
11.50 |
7.84 |
12.87 |
35.19 |
12.13 |
20.68 |
| 20 | 12.57 |
12.22 |
11.78 |
11.24 |
11.02 |
7.87 |
6.92 |
12.04 |
36.84 |
20.73 |
| 21 | 12.00 |
11.64 |
11.32 |
10.86 |
10.59 |
7.38 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.77 |
9.53 |
8 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.71 |
30.84 |
| Bust | 35.35 |
37.41 |
39.55 |
41.79 |
42.29 |
26.20 |
24.40 |
22.90 |
23.01 |
16.69 |
| 17 | 13.97 |
13.45 |
13.05 |
12.19 |
16.56 |
36.90 |
12.88 |
12.02 |
12.11 |
18.83 |
| 18 | 13.45 |
13.05 |
12.45 |
12.24 |
10.62 |
13.79 |
35.98 |
11.80 |
12.09 |
18.92 |
| 19 | 12.99 |
12.53 |
12.13 |
11.76 |
10.64 |
7.85 |
12.87 |
35.16 |
12.12 |
18.89 |
| 20 | 12.40 |
12.07 |
11.65 |
11.21 |
10.16 |
7.87 |
6.93 |
12.03 |
36.90 |
18.93 |
| 21 | 11.83 |
11.49 |
11.17 |
10.80 |
9.72 |
7.39 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.76 |
7.75 |
8 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.71 |
30.84 |
| Bust | 35.67 |
37.69 |
39.81 |
41.91 |
43.93 |
26.20 |
24.40 |
22.90 |
23.01 |
20.11 |
| 17 | 13.01 |
12.60 |
12.24 |
11.82 |
11.50 |
36.90 |
12.88 |
12.02 |
12.11 |
8.29 |
| 18 | 13.61 |
13.19 |
12.59 |
12.30 |
11.46 |
13.79 |
35.98 |
11.80 |
12.09 |
20.67 |
| 19 | 13.15 |
12.68 |
12.27 |
11.83 |
11.50 |
7.85 |
12.87 |
35.16 |
12.12 |
20.68 |
| 20 | 12.57 |
12.21 |
11.78 |
11.28 |
11.02 |
7.87 |
6.93 |
12.03 |
36.90 |
20.72 |
| 21 | 11.99 |
11.63 |
11.31 |
10.87 |
10.58 |
7.39 |
6.95 |
6.09 |
3.76 |
9.54 |
Infinite Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s
| Outcome | 2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ | -- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7.69 |
30.77 |
| Bust | 35.36 |
37.39 |
39.45 |
41.64 |
42.32 |
26.23 |
24.47 |
22.84 |
22.98 |
16.65 |
| 17 | 13.98 |
13.50 |
13.05 |
12.23 |
16.54 |
36.86 |
12.86 |
12.00 |
12.07 |
18.89 |
| 18 | 13.49 |
13.05 |
12.59 |
12.23 |
10.63 |
13.78 |
35.93 |
12.00 |
12.07 |
18.89 |
| 19 | 12.97 |
12.56 |
12.14 |
11.77 |
10.63 |
7.86 |
12.86 |
35.08 |
12.07 |
18.89 |
| 20 | 12.40 |
12.03 |
11.65 |
11.31 |
10.17 |
7.86 |
6.94 |
12.00 |
37.07 |
18.89 |
| 21 | 11.80 |
11.47 |
11.12 |
10.82 |
9.72 |
7.41 |
6.94 |
6.08 |
3.74 |
7.78 |